---------------------------------------------------------- Commander-List Digest Archive --- Total Messages Posted Sun 07/09/06: 11 ---------------------------------------------------------- Today's Message Index: ---------------------- 1. 04:05 PM - N900RA's Final Flight (CloudCraft@aol.com) 2. 04:36 PM - Re: N900RA's Final Flight (nico css) 3. 07:15 PM - Re: N900RA's Final Flight (MASON CHEVAILLIER) 4. 07:50 PM - Re: N900RA's Final Flight (YOURTCFG@aol.com) 5. 07:57 PM - FLY-IN DATE (YOURTCFG@aol.com) 6. 08:18 PM - Re: FLY-IN DATE (swperk@earthlink.net) 7. 08:19 PM - Re: FLY-IN DATE () 8. 08:26 PM - ANOTHER ONE (YOURTCFG@aol.com) 9. 09:12 PM - Re: FLY-IN DATE (nico css) 10. 09:34 PM - Re: N900RA's Final Flight (Tylor Hall) 11. 11:53 PM - Re: FLY-IN DATE (John Vormbaum) ________________________________ Message 1 _____________________________________ Time: 04:05:49 PM PST US From: CloudCraft@aol.com Subject: Commander-List: N900RA's Final Flight All, I was asked to give my opinion about N900RA's last flight. For those of you who don't know or don't remember, it involved an Aero Commander Shrike that crashed in high terrain near the Nevada/Oregon/California border on 21 November, 2001, flying between Reno (KRNO) and Wenatchee (KEAT). The operator was a very experienced Commander operator by reputation. I did not personally know the pilot. My opinion was asked for (as were a few of you, I believe) as part of an article that is being written for Aviation Safety. There are few accidents that I can point to and say, "What a dork! He should have ____________," and so, I am very conservative when it comes to placing blame, which is what accident investigations and articles want to do. Follows is my response, after reading the full NTSB report. I'm broadcasting this to you so you know my stance on this, just in case a "sound byte" appears in publication, in or out of context. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ After reading the NTSB report, it's pretty clear that the pilot and passengers were in the wrong place at the right time. Severe down drafts, saturated air with icing and turbulence reported by various aircraft in the vicinity, a company (turbocharged, MR RPM conversion) Aero Commander 680FL(P) flying the same route, but in IFR at IFR altitudes having to use full power to climb against a downdraft and deviate from course to avoid mountain wave ... The question that only speculation can answer is why fly VFR on that route, on that day? One answer may be that the pilot thought that flying IFR at IFR altitudes may have been beyond the capability of the aircraft, given the conditions he was encountering. (Normally aspirated AC-500S; status of oxygen quantity and equipment; I don't know if N900RA was certified known ice) A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place. Given the nature of the operator and their area of operations (Pacific Northwest and Alaska, U.S. Forest Service contractor), they were no strangers to mountain weather phenomena and were strong instrument and Aero Commander pilots. Maybe the pilot used his best strategy for the conditions of the day and that strategy didn't work. To say the flight should not have been conducted that day is the easy analysis. I've made those decisions -- and I've also pressed on in the face of special missions. I'm a former U.S. Forest Service Air Attack pilot in an Aero Commander, and have flown in severe mountain wave conditions and my strategies worked. Maybe my strategies were marginal and I was on the razor's edge of failure the whole mission. Maybe I have been lucky enough to retreat a nanosecond prior to each catastrophe. Flights for critical missions require a different risk assumption than flight for business or pleasure. If one were to be critical of the chain of events and decisions for N900RA's last flight one has to know if the trip was truly essential or not. Keith S. Gordon aka "Wing Commander Gordon" ________________________________ Message 2 _____________________________________ Time: 04:36:28 PM PST US From: "nico css" Subject: RE: Commander-List: N900RA's Final Flight Perhaps a lecture on mountain flying, especially mountain waves, would be a valuable piece of reading to all. It would be to me, I know. Thanks Nico _____ [mailto:owner-commander-list-server@matronics.com] On Behalf Of CloudCraft@aol.com Sent: Sunday, July 09, 2006 2:06 PM All, I was asked to give my opinion about N900RA's last flight. For those of you who don't know or don't remember, it involved an Aero Commander Shrike that crashed in high terrain near the Nevada/Oregon/California border on 21 November, 2001, flying between Reno (KRNO) and Wenatchee (KEAT). The operator was a very experienced Commander operator by reputation. I did not personally know the pilot. My opinion was asked for (as were a few of you, I believe) as part of an article that is being written for Aviation Safety. There are few accidents that I can point to and say, "What a dork! He should have ____________," and so, I am very conservative when it comes to placing blame, which is what accident investigations and articles want to do. Follows is my response, after reading the full NTSB report. I'm broadcasting this to you so you know my stance on this, just in case a "sound byte" appears in publication, in or out of context. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ After reading the NTSB report, it's pretty clear that the pilot and passengers were in the wrong place at the right time. Severe down drafts, saturated air with icing and turbulence reported by various aircraft in the vicinity, a company (turbocharged, MR RPM conversion) Aero Commander 680FL(P) flying the same route, but in IFR at IFR altitudes having to use full power to climb against a downdraft and deviate from course to avoid mountain wave ... The question that only speculation can answer is why fly VFR on that route, on that day? One answer may be that the pilot thought that flying IFR at IFR altitudes may have been beyond the capability of the aircraft, given the conditions he was encountering. (Normally aspirated AC-500S; status of oxygen quantity and equipment; I don't know if N900RA was certified known ice) A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place. Given the nature of the operator and their area of operations (Pacific Northwest and Alaska, U.S. Forest Service contractor), they were no strangers to mountain weather phenomena and were strong instrument and Aero Commander pilots. Maybe the pilot used his best strategy for the conditions of the day and that strategy didn't work. To say the flight should not have been conducted that day is the easy analysis. I've made those decisions -- and I've also pressed on in the face of special missions. I'm a former U.S. Forest Service Air Attack pilot in an Aero Commander, and have flown in severe mountain wave conditions and my strategies worked. Maybe my strategies were marginal and I was on the razor's edge of failure the whole mission. Maybe I have been lucky enough to retreat a nanosecond prior to each catastrophe. Flights for critical missions require a different risk assumption than flight for business or pleasure. If one were to be critical of the chain of events and decisions for N900RA's last flight one has to know if the trip was truly essential or not. Keith S. Gordon aka "Wing Commander Gordon" ________________________________ Message 3 _____________________________________ Time: 07:15:55 PM PST US From: "MASON CHEVAILLIER" Subject: Re: Commander-List: N900RA's Final Flight kg, concur. mason ----- Original Message ----- From: CloudCraft@aol.com To: commander-list@matronics.com Sent: Sunday, July 09, 2006 4:05 PM Subject: Commander-List: N900RA's Final Flight All, I was asked to give my opinion about N900RA's last flight. For those of you who don't know or don't remember, it involved an Aero Commander Shrike that crashed in high terrain near the Nevada/Oregon/California border on 21 November, 2001, flying between Reno (KRNO) and Wenatchee (KEAT). The operator was a very experienced Commander operator by reputation. I did not personally know the pilot. My opinion was asked for (as were a few of you, I believe) as part of an article that is being written for Aviation Safety. There are few accidents that I can point to and say, "What a dork! He should have ____________," and so, I am very conservative when it comes to placing blame, which is what accident investigations and articles want to do. Follows is my response, after reading the full NTSB report. I'm broadcasting this to you so you know my stance on this, just in case a "sound byte" appears in publication, in or out of context. +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ After reading the NTSB report, it's pretty clear that the pilot and passengers were in the wrong place at the right time. Severe down drafts, saturated air with icing and turbulence reported by various aircraft in the vicinity, a company (turbocharged, MR RPM conversion) Aero Commander 680FL(P) flying the same route, but in IFR at IFR altitudes having to use full power to climb against a downdraft and deviate from course to avoid mountain wave ... The question that only speculation can answer is why fly VFR on that route, on that day? One answer may be that the pilot thought that flying IFR at IFR altitudes may have been beyond the capability of the aircraft, given the conditions he was encountering. (Normally aspirated AC-500S; status of oxygen quantity and equipment; I don't know if N900RA was certified known ice) A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place. Given the nature of the operator and their area of operations (Pacific Northwest and Alaska, U.S. Forest Service contractor), they were no strangers to mountain weather phenomena and were strong instrument and Aero Commander pilots. Maybe the pilot used his best strategy for the conditions of the day and that strategy didn't work. To say the flight should not have been conducted that day is the easy analysis. I've made those decisions -- and I've also pressed on in the face of special missions. I'm a former U.S. Forest Service Air Attack pilot in an Aero Commander, and have flown in severe mountain wave conditions and my strategies worked. Maybe my strategies were marginal and I was on the razor's edge of failure the whole mission. Maybe I have been lucky enough to retreat a nanosecond prior to each catastrophe. Flights for critical missions require a different risk assumption than flight for business or pleasure. If one were to be critical of the chain of events and decisions for N900RA's last flight one has to know if the trip was truly essential or not. Keith S. Gordon aka "Wing Commander Gordon" ________________________________ Message 4 _____________________________________ Time: 07:50:54 PM PST US From: YOURTCFG@aol.com Subject: Re: Commander-List: N900RA's Final Flight In a message dated 7/9/2006 4:07:20 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, CloudCraft@aol.com writes: A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place. That is true and I don't think could have been done that day. I ws in triple two, that day ant the time of this tragic accident. I to was flying VFR from 1W1 to S67. I was about 300nm north of the impact area. The weather to the south that day was in my opinion impassible in all but the most robust, tubocharged, fully dieced equipment. I flew only a few miles north of the leading edge of this lager weather front and if I even got close to any cloud, Ice immediately formed. I believe WCG last comment was the most telling, how essential is any flight we make. jb ________________________________ Message 5 _____________________________________ Time: 07:57:04 PM PST US From: YOURTCFG@aol.com Subject: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE HI KIDS. It has come to my attention that several prominent attendees of past flyins will not be able to make this years event because of the current date. I am asking those on the list , who plan to attend this years event, if there is a preference fore an alterative date, possibly a week earlier (conflicts with the Reno Air Races) or two weeks later, the first week of Oct?? I know that not everyone can always attend these things and conflicts will always arise, still, if moving it to one of these dates will not adversely effect anyone else, It would help several others. Your thoughts. jb ________________________________ Message 6 _____________________________________ Time: 08:18:28 PM PST US From: swperk@earthlink.net Subject: Re: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE --> Commander-List message posted by: swperk@earthlink.net Hi JB, I have already arranged time off based on the originally proposed dates (September 22nd through the 24th). If a change is going to be made, I'll need as much advance notice as possible to try to get coverage. For the record, a week earlier won't work for me, but two weeks later (which I am assuming will be October 6th through the 8th) would be the best alternative for me. Regards, Stan N681SP -----Original Message----- >From: YOURTCFG@aol.com >Sent: Jul 9, 2006 7:55 PM >To: commander-list@matronics.com >Subject: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE > >HI KIDS. > > It has come to my attention that several prominent attendees of past >flyins will not be able to make this years event because of the current >date. I am asking those on the list , who plan to attend this years event, if >there is a preference fore an alterative date, possibly a week earlier >(conflicts with the Reno Air Races) or two weeks later, the first week of Oct?? I >know that not everyone can always attend these things and conflicts will always >arise, still, if moving it to one of these dates will not adversely effect >anyone else, It would help several others. Your thoughts. jb ________________________________ Message 7 _____________________________________ Time: 08:19:06 PM PST US From: Subject: Re: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE --> Commander-List message posted by: G'day Jim, First week in October is fine by me and I am definitely planning to be there...as much lead time as possible is always appreciated with the need to lock in international travel from Oz! Moving the dates to 'capture as many as possible' seems like a sensible way to go. Cheers from Oz Russell ---- Original message ---- >Date: Sun, 9 Jul 2006 22:55:16 EDT >From: YOURTCFG@aol.com >Subject: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE >To: commander-list@matronics.com > > HI KIDS. > > It has come to my attention that several > prominent attendees of past flyins will not be able > to make this years event because of the current > date. I am asking those on the list , who plan to > attend this years event, if there is a preference > fore an alterative date, possibly a week earlier > (conflicts with the Reno Air Races) or two weeks > later, the first week of Oct?? I know that not > everyone can always attend these things and > conflicts will always arise, still, if moving it to > one of these dates will not adversely effect anyone > else, It would help several others. Your thoughts. > jb ________________________________ Message 8 _____________________________________ Time: 08:26:53 PM PST US From: YOURTCFG@aol.com Subject: Commander-List: ANOTHER ONE HI KIDS. I just returned from delivering another Commander to the A&P school in Alabama. This was a 560A, S/N 264 (N2764B). It was an uneventful flight. I picked the airplane up in San Diego (SEE) and flew it to Commander Services in Stockton (CSK). Morris Kernick and I worked a couple of days addressing some issues (the airplane had not flown in at least 8 years). We found no major problems, except advanced surface corrosion that made a restoration unlikely. Mechanically she was sound. I left SCK on Fri morning and stopped in Cortez Co. for fuel. Then to MacCalister OK for the night. The next morning I flew on to the destination, Ozark-Enterprise Community College (71J). A total of about 15 hours. The airplane ran great and could easily have been fueled and flown back across the US!! The school will keep this airplane and the last one I delivered together to teach students about hydraulics. They call it a "full system" approach as the airplanes remain intact and students get to work on "real" airplanes as opposed to mock-ups. Maybe someday they will be retired and sold as surplus and restored?? At least for now they are safe and secure in a new hangar. jb ________________________________ Message 9 _____________________________________ Time: 09:12:42 PM PST US From: "nico css" Subject: RE: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE --> Commander-List message posted by: "nico css" Beginning October might be a better alternative because 'high season' as far as airlines are concerned, would be over by then. -----Original Message----- [mailto:owner-commander-list-server@matronics.com] On Behalf Of rlegg@austarnet.com.au Sent: Sunday, July 09, 2006 8:19 PM --> Commander-List message posted by: G'day Jim, First week in October is fine by me and I am definitely planning to be there...as much lead time as possible is always appreciated with the need to lock in international travel from Oz! Moving the dates to 'capture as many as possible' seems like a sensible way to go. Cheers from Oz Russell ---- Original message ---- >Date: Sun, 9 Jul 2006 22:55:16 EDT >From: YOURTCFG@aol.com >Subject: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE >To: commander-list@matronics.com > > HI KIDS. > > It has come to my attention that several > prominent attendees of past flyins will not be able > to make this years event because of the current > date. I am asking those on the list , who plan to > attend this years event, if there is a preference > fore an alterative date, possibly a week earlier > (conflicts with the Reno Air Races) or two weeks > later, the first week of Oct?? I know that not > everyone can always attend these things and > conflicts will always arise, still, if moving it to > one of these dates will not adversely effect anyone > else, It would help several others. Your thoughts. > jb ________________________________ Message 10 ____________________________________ Time: 09:34:02 PM PST US From: Tylor Hall Subject: Re: Commander-List: N900RA's Final Flight I remember when the accident happened as well. I had just moved to Incline, NM at Lake Tahoe. I got a real education of how bad the weather can get by living at 7600' in the mountains. I always wondered how one of my favorite aircraft went down. It has been a habit of mine to read the accident reports or the "never again" type of stories, to understand what went wrong and how can I apply it to my flying. I do not want to make the same mistake that someone did before me. There is weather that is un-flyable and we should go tomorrow. I have heard of reports of mountain waves that can cause 3000'/min down and up drafts along mountain ridges. Here is my "There I was story". I had just departed alone from Pagos Springs, CO in a 500B and was heading east over Wolf Creek Pass Ski Area. The pass is 10600' with mountains to the north and south over 13000'. It was morning and perfectly clear day. There was a breeze out of the west. I crossed the pass on a 45 degree angle, planed a route to return if required, and was climbing to 13000. Over the pass and on the east side I hit a clear air bump. Every thing ended on the ceiling, charts, headsets, bumped by head, with out any warning. It was very startling, but nothing else happened. No additional bumps, Just smooth. Quick check of all the gauges, and a visual look out both sides. Every thing was fine. The Mountains will try and get you any time. It is not a big exciting story, but it did get my attention. Tylor Hall On Jul 9, 2006, at 8:50 PM, YOURTCFG@aol.com wrote: > In a message dated 7/9/2006 4:07:20 P.M. Pacific Standard Time, > CloudCraft@aol.com writes: > A strategy of flying VFR and remaining clear of clouds may have > been the idea, and a possible good decision, if downdrafts did not > exits at the magnitude they were at that time and place. > That is true and I don't think could have been done that day. I ws > in triple two, that day ant the time of this tragic accident. I to > was flying VFR from 1W1 to S67. I was about 300nm north of the > impact area. The weather to the south that day was in my opinion > impassible in all but the most robust, tubocharged, fully dieced > equipment. I flew only a few miles north of the leading edge of > this lager weather front and if I even got close to any cloud, Ice > immediately formed. I believe WCG last comment was the most > telling, how essential is any flight we make. jb ________________________________ Message 11 ____________________________________ Time: 11:53:44 PM PST US From: "John Vormbaum" Subject: Re: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE --> Commander-List message posted by: "John Vormbaum" Hi JB, The OCT dates would work fine for me. I will probably attend the Reno air races, so I'd hope the fly in isn't that weekend. /J ----- Original Message ----- Sent: Sunday, July 09, 2006 8:17 PM > --> Commander-List message posted by: swperk@earthlink.net > > Hi JB, > > I have already arranged time off based on the originally proposed dates > (September 22nd through the 24th). If a change is going to be made, I'll > need as much advance notice as possible to try to get coverage. > > For the record, a week earlier won't work for me, but two weeks later > (which I am assuming will be October 6th through the 8th) would be the > best alternative for me. > > Regards, > Stan > N681SP > > -----Original Message----- >>From: YOURTCFG@aol.com >>Sent: Jul 9, 2006 7:55 PM >>To: commander-list@matronics.com >>Subject: Commander-List: FLY-IN DATE >> >>HI KIDS. >> >> It has come to my attention that several prominent attendees of >> past >>flyins will not be able to make this years event because of the current >>date. I am asking those on the list , who plan to attend this years >>event, if >>there is a preference fore an alterative date, possibly a week earlier >>(conflicts with the Reno Air Races) or two weeks later, the first week of >>Oct?? I >>know that not everyone can always attend these things and conflicts will >>always >>arise, still, if moving it to one of these dates will not adversely >>effect >>anyone else, It would help several others. Your thoughts. jb > > > __________ NOD32 1.1651 (20060708) Information __________ > > This message was checked by NOD32 antivirus system. > http://www.eset.com > > > __________ NOD32 1.1651 (20060708) Information __________ > > This message was checked by NOD32 antivirus system. > http://www.eset.com > >