---------------------------------------------------------- Zenith-List Digest Archive --- Total Messages Posted Thu 02/26/09: 8 ---------------------------------------------------------- Today's Message Index: ---------------------- 1. 05:34 AM - Re: Fuses /Breakers and a few electrical questions (Ken Arnold) 2. 12:13 PM - Absence of Evidence (roger lambert) 3. 12:28 PM - Re: Absence of Evidence (steve) 4. 12:46 PM - Re: Absence of Evidence (jaybannist@cs.com) 5. 01:13 PM - 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace (japhillipsga@aol.com) 6. 02:25 PM - Re: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace (Craig Payne) 7. 04:41 PM - Re: Absence of Evidence (ihab.awad@gmail.com) 8. 08:55 PM - Re: New Panel Design (Terry Phillips) ________________________________ Message 1 _____________________________________ Time: 05:34:45 AM PST US From: "Ken Arnold" Subject: Re: Zenith-List: Fuses /Breakers and a few electrical questions George, Excellent picture. Excellent design. Ken Arnold Flying CH701 N701LK do not archive ----- Original Message ----- From: George Race To: zenith-list@matronics.com Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 9:31 AM Subject: RE: Zenith-List: Fuses /Breakers and a few electrical questions Attached is the schematic diagram of what I did building a CH-701 It is in picture format. I have it in DWG and DXF if it would be of any help. Diagram was drawn using Microsoft Visio. George ------------------------------------------------------------------------- ----- From: owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com [mailto:owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com] On Behalf Of Rich Simmons Sent: Wednesday, February 25, 2009 7:31 AM To: List, Zenith-List Subject: Zenith-List: Fuses /Breakers and a few electrical questions If someone would like to share what they did for a schematic I can use fro an example it would be great! I know these question are some what basic but hey, it's a starting point. Any good advice would be appreciated. DO NOT ARCHIVE Rich 601 XL href="http://www.matronics.com/Navigator?Zenith-List">http://www.matron href="http://forums.matronics.com">http://forums.matronics.com href="http://www.matronics.com/contribution">http://www.matronics.com/c ________________________________ Message 2 _____________________________________ Time: 12:13:32 PM PST US Subject: Zenith-List: Absence of Evidence From: roger lambert In probability theory, absence of *evidence* is always *evidence* of absence. If E is a binary event and P(H|E) > P(H), "seeing E increases the probability of H"; then P(H|~E) < P(H), "failure to observe E decreases the probability of H". P(H) is a weighted mix of P(H|E) and P(H|~E), and necessarily lies between the two. If any of this sounds at all confusing, see An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning. Under the vast majority of real-life circumstances, a cause may not reliably produce signs of itself, but the absence of the cause is even less likely to produce the signs. The absence of an observation may be strong evidence of absence or very weak evidence of absence, depending on how likely the cause is to produce the observation. The absence of an observation that is only weakly permitted (even if the alternative hypothesis does not allow it at all), is very weak evidence of absence (though it is evidence nonetheless). ________________________________ Message 3 _____________________________________ Time: 12:28:39 PM PST US From: "steve" Subject: Re: Zenith-List: Absence of Evidence So, in reality Abstinence is bad ? ----- Original Message ----- From: roger lambert To: zenith-list@matronics.com Sent: Thursday, February 26, 2009 1:01 PM Subject: Zenith-List: Absence of Evidence In probability theory, absence of evidence is always evidence of absence. If E is a binary event and P(H|E) > P(H), "seeing E increases the probability of H"; then P(H|~E) < P(H), "failure to observe E decreases the probability of H". P(H) is a weighted mix of P(H|E) and P(H|~E), and necessarily lies between the two. If any of this sounds at all confusing, see An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning. Under the vast majority of real-life circumstances, a cause may not reliably produce signs of itself, but the absence of the cause is even less likely to produce the signs. The absence of an observation may be strong evidence of absence or very weak evidence of absence, depending on how likely the cause is to produce the observation. The absence of an observation that is only weakly permitted (even if the alternative hypothesis does not allow it at all), is very weak evidence of absence (though it is evidence nonetheless). ________________________________ Message 4 _____________________________________ Time: 12:46:30 PM PST US Subject: Re: Zenith-List: Absence of Evidence From: jaybannist@cs.com Roger, No "dis" is intended, your "egghead" analysis has one flawed statement - "the absence of the cause is even less likely to produce the signs."? If there is no cause, there is no negative result and NO evidence, 'cause nothing will happen without a cause. Right? Does this apply to something pertinent?? If so, what is your point? Jay Bannister -----Original Message----- From: roger lambert Sent: Thu, 26 Feb 2009 2:01 pm Subject: Zenith-List: Absence of Evidence In?probability theory, absence of evidence is always evidence of absence.? ?If E is a binary event and P(H|E) > P(H), "seeing E increases the probability of H"; then P(H|~E) < P(H), "failure to observe E decreases the probability of H".? P(H) is a weighted mix of P(H|E) and P(H|~E), and necessarily lies between the two.? If any of this sounds at all confusing, see An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning. Under the vast majority of real-life circumstances, a cause may not reliably produce signs of itself, but the absence of the cause is even less likely to produce the signs.? The absence of an observation may be strong evidence of absence or very weak evidence of absence, depending on how likely the cause is to produce the observation.? The absence of an observation that is only weakly permitted (even if the alternative hypothesis does not allow it at all), is very weak evidence of absence (though it is evidence nonetheless).? ________________________________________________________________________ Email message sent from CompuServe - visit us today at http://www.cs.com ________________________________ Message 5 _____________________________________ Time: 01:13:16 PM PST US Subject: Zenith-List: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace From: japhillipsga@aol.com Dear 601 Builders & Flyers, here is my next effort at reducing the risk of aileron flutter. Sure would enjoy reading your opinions, Best regards, Bill of Georgia ________________________________ Message 6 _____________________________________ Time: 02:25:08 PM PST US From: "Craig Payne" Subject: RE: Zenith-List: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace For those who don't have Microsoft Office 2007 (or the "docx" viewer) I've converted the doc to Acrobat/PDF. Hopefully you will find it attached. -- Craig From: owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com [mailto:owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com] On Behalf Of japhillipsga@aol.com Sent: Thursday, February 26, 2009 2:10 PM Subject: Zenith-List: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace Dear 601 Builders & Flyers, here is my next effort at reducing the risk of aileron flutter. Sure would enjoy reading your opinions, Best regards, Bill of Georgia _____ Looking for work? Get job alerts, employment information, career advice and job-seeking tools at AOL Find a Job. ________________________________ Message 7 _____________________________________ Time: 04:41:47 PM PST US Subject: Re: Zenith-List: Absence of Evidence From: ihab.awad@gmail.com On Thu, Feb 26, 2009 at 12:01 PM, roger lambert wrote: > Inprobability theory, absence of evidence is always evidence of absence. You are right, and I stand duly corrected. Thank you. Let me amend my ways: The fact that the Yuba City report states: "no oscillatory loading of the control surfaces was apparent" counts as evidence against flutter, but should not rule it out; furthermore, given the paucity of other hypotheses and the various reasons to continue to suspect flutter (including actual occurence of it in the fleet), we should continue to pursue this avenue in addition to others. Does this work better? Ihab -- Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA ________________________________ Message 8 _____________________________________ Time: 08:55:59 PM PST US From: Terry Phillips Subject: Re: Zenith-List: New Panel Design Thanks, Dan. You guys are way ahead of me. I'm glad to hear that it is in the works. Terry At 10:52 AM 2/22/2009 -0800, you wrote: >Terry, >Sorry I didn't reply sooner.. I filter the Zenith list to its own mail box >and I haven/t had time to read it lately. Gen2 will have the ability to >write logs to a USB stick. It will also be used for software updates. > >Dan Lykowski >Dynon Avionics Terry Phillips ZBAGer ttp44~at~rkymtn.net Corvallis MT 601XL/Jab 3300 s .. l .. o .. o .. w build kit - Tail, flaps, & ailerons are done; working on the wings http://www.mykitlog.com/N47TP/ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Other Matronics Email List Services ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Post A New Message zenith-list@matronics.com UN/SUBSCRIBE http://www.matronics.com/subscription List FAQ http://www.matronics.com/FAQ/Zenith-List.htm Web Forum Interface To Lists http://forums.matronics.com Matronics List Wiki http://wiki.matronics.com Full Archive Search Engine http://www.matronics.com/search 7-Day List Browse http://www.matronics.com/browse/zenith-list Browse Digests http://www.matronics.com/digest/zenith-list Browse Other Lists http://www.matronics.com/browse Live Online Chat! http://www.matronics.com/chat Archive Downloading http://www.matronics.com/archives Photo Share http://www.matronics.com/photoshare Other Email Lists http://www.matronics.com/emaillists Contributions http://www.matronics.com/contribution ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- These Email List Services are sponsored solely by Matronics and through the generous Contributions of its members.