Today's Message Index:
----------------------
1. 05:50 AM - Re: Absence of Evidence (steveadams)
2. 07:47 AM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (ihab.awad@gmail.com)
3. 07:51 AM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (ihab.awad@gmail.com)
4. 08:11 AM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (steve)
5. 08:51 AM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (Bryan Martin)
6. 09:48 AM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (Gary Gower)
7. 10:00 AM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (jaybannist@cs.com)
8. 11:00 AM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (ihab.awad@gmail.com)
9. 12:05 PM - Re: Absence of Evidence (Gig Giacona)
10. 12:17 PM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (ihab.awad@gmail.com)
11. 01:17 PM - Re: Absence of Evidence (Gig Giacona)
12. 01:42 PM - Re: Re: Absence of Evidence (ihab.awad@gmail.com)
13. 07:12 PM - Re: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace (JAPhillipsGA@aol.com)
14. 07:32 PM - Re: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace (Craig Payne)
Message 1
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
ihab.awad(at)gmail.com wrote:
> On Thu, Feb 26, 2009 at 12:01 PM, roger lambert wrote:
>
> > In?probability theory, absence of evidence is always evidence of absence.
> >
> >
>
> You are right, and I stand duly corrected. Thank you. Let me amend my ways:
>
> The fact that the Yuba City report states:
>
> "no oscillatory loading of the control surfaces was apparent"
>
> counts as evidence against flutter, but should not rule it out;
> furthermore, given the paucity of other hypotheses and the various
> reasons to continue to suspect flutter (including actual occurence of
> it in the fleet), we should continue to pursue this avenue in addition
> to others.
>
> Does this work better?
>
> Ihab
>
> --
> Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
There is no way to rule out flutter by your standards, since by this logic the
absence of flutter raises the possibility that flutter occurred.
Read this topic online here:
http://forums.matronics.com/viewtopic.php?p=232317#232317
Message 2
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 1:49 PM, steveadams <dr_steve_adams@yahoo.com> wrote:
> There is no way to rule out flutter by your standards, since by this logic the
absence
> of flutter raises the possibility that flutter occurred.
No: I think one *can* reasonably rule out flutter, but this requires
some further testing that I hope gets conducted to put everyone's mind
at ease.
Ihab
--
Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
Message 3
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 3:46 PM, <ihab.awad@gmail.com> wrote:
> No: I think one *can* reasonably rule out flutter, but this requires
> some further testing that I hope gets conducted to put everyone's mind
> at ease.
And maybe I should correct myself further in that I'm making an
unstated assumption: Even in the case that the Yuba City accident is
not flutter related (in which case it's certainly *weird*), flutter
remains enough of a wildcard that further testing may be in order.
But really I should also say: I'm not a Zenith builder and I have
expressed far more opinions here than I should. Please carry on as you
folks see fit. Thank you for listening. :)
Ihab
--
Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
Message 4
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
I honestly dont think anyone is listening. We have hashed this out long
before ...
The only AD I ve ever seen on an Experimental was from Zenith. It relates
to control cable tension.
----- Original Message -----
From: <ihab.awad@gmail.com>
Sent: Friday, February 27, 2009 8:51 AM
Subject: Re: Zenith-List: Re: Absence of Evidence
>
> On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 3:46 PM, <ihab.awad@gmail.com> wrote:
>> No: I think one *can* reasonably rule out flutter, but this requires
>> some further testing that I hope gets conducted to put everyone's mind
>> at ease.
>
> And maybe I should correct myself further in that I'm making an
> unstated assumption: Even in the case that the Yuba City accident is
> not flutter related (in which case it's certainly *weird*), flutter
> remains enough of a wildcard that further testing may be in order.
>
> But really I should also say: I'm not a Zenith builder and I have
> expressed far more opinions here than I should. Please carry on as you
> folks see fit. Thank you for listening. :)
>
> Ihab
>
> --
> Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
>
>
>
Message 5
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
It wasn't an AD, ADs are strictly US FAA documents. It was a Service
Bulletin directed at European aircraft. The Zodiac is not the only UL
aircraft in Europe that has had Service Bulletins issued for it.
In the US, ADs are only issued for type certificated aircraft and
compliance is mandatory. No such document exists in the US for
aircraft with experimental certificates. For those aircraft,
compliance with service bulletins is voluntary. In Europe the rules
are very different.
>
> >
>
> I honestly dont think anyone is listening. We have hashed this out
> long before ...
> The only AD I ve ever seen on an Experimental was from Zenith. It
> relates to control cable tension.
>
>
--
Bryan Martin
N61BM, CH 601 XL,
RAM Subaru, Stratus redrive.
do not archive.
Message 6
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
This is funny!!!
-
This is like a "paparatssi"- notice:--
In an interview with "John Doe" the famous actor, the Paparatssi (P)-aske
d him:-
Do you think "Pretty Blonde", the singer is attractive?-
He answers: Yes, she is.-
Then the P asks: Do you know shes married?-
JD answers: Yes,-
P then asks:- Will you date her even married?-
JD answers:- No, I dont date married women.-
-
That night In the TV (or the Zenith list:-) the notice is like this:
-
We found "John Doe, the famous actor running to catch his airplane to Holly
wood, but he had the chance to tell us that HE IS IN LOVE with "Pretty Blon
de" the singer, He also told us in this exclusive interview that HE WIIL NO
T date her until she gets her divorce,- but we will be checking out, He t
old us also-he will not date married women, BUT MAYBE he will date her an
y-week end from now...- Me cant discard any possibility...
-
Just change "601XL" for the artists, and "flutter" with divorce and dating
:-) :-)- .-)
-
Do not archive...
-
Saludos
Gary Gower.
-
--- On Fri, 2/27/09, ihab.awad@gmail.com <ihab.awad@gmail.com> wrote:
From: ihab.awad@gmail.com <ihab.awad@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: Zenith-List: Re: Absence of Evidence
On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 3:46 PM, <ihab.awad@gmail.com> wrote:
> No: I think one *can* reasonably rule out flutter, but this requires
> some further testing that I hope gets conducted to put everyone's mind
> at ease.
And maybe I should correct myself further in that I'm making an
unstated assumption: Even in the case that the Yuba City accident is
not flutter related (in which case it's certainly *weird*), flutter
remains enough of a wildcard that further testing may be in order.
But really I should also say: I'm not a Zenith builder and I have
expressed far more opinions here than I should. Please carry on as you
folks see fit. Thank you for listening. :)
Ihab
--
Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
=0A=0A=0A
Message 7
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
Gary,
Very astute !
I see this "absence of evidence" argument as a circular argument that actually
gets one nowhere.? It just winds up back in the same place every time - nowhere;
proving nothing in the journey..?
Jay Bannister
Do not archive
-----Original Message-----
From: Gary Gower <ggower_99@yahoo.com>
Sent: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 11:47 am
Subject: Re: Zenith-List: Re: Absence of Evidence
This is funny!!!
?
This is like a "paparatssi"? notice:??
In an interview with "John Doe" the famous actor, the Paparatssi (P)?asked him:?
Do you think "Pretty Blonde", the singer is attractive??
He answers: Yes, she is.?
Then the P asks: Do you know shes married??
JD answers: Yes,?
P then asks:? Will you date her even married??
JD answers:? No, I dont date married women.?
?
That night In the TV (or the Zenith list:-) the notice is like this:
?
We found "John Doe, the famous actor running to catch his airplane to Hollywood,
but he had the chance to tell us that HE IS IN LOVE with "Pretty Blonde" the
singer, He also told us in this exclusive interview that HE WIIL NOT date her
until she gets her divorce,? but we will be checking out, He told us also?he
will not date married women, BUT MAYBE he will date her any?week end from now...?
Me cant discard any possibility...
?
Just change "601XL" for the artists, and "flutter" with divorce and dating :-)
:-)? .-)
?
Do not archive...
?
Saludos
Gary Gower.
?
________________________________________________________________________
Email message sent from CompuServe - visit us today at http://www.cs.com
Message 8
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
Gary & folks,
On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 9:47 AM, Gary Gower <ggower_99@yahoo.com> wrote:
> This is funny!!!
Please don't try to make fun of me or anyone; this doesn't help the discussion.
As far as my reasoning goes, here it is. When an accident is
precipitated by aeroelasticity, is it possible for perceptible
yielding to only occur on the last cycle so that the yield pattern
only shows the final static failure? The NTSB report did not connect
these dots, leading me to believe that the evidence is not conclusive
either way.
Ihab
--
Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
Message 9
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
ihab.awad(at)gmail.com wrote:
>
> Please don't try to make fun of me or anyone; this doesn't help the discussion.
>
> As far as my reasoning goes, here it is. When an accident is
> precipitated by aeroelasticity, is it possible for perceptible
> yielding to only occur on the last cycle so that the yield pattern
> only shows the final static failure? The NTSB report did not connect
> these dots, leading me to believe that the evidence is not conclusive
> either way.
>
> Ihab
>
> --
> Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
Do you have some information that we don't have? I ask because you seem to be assuming
that the FAA missed something. Unless you have some evidence that this
is the case your position as stated above is pure conjecture.
--------
W.R. "Gig" Giacona
601XL Under Construction
See my progress at www.peoamerica.net/N601WR
Read this topic online here:
http://forums.matronics.com/viewtopic.php?p=232344#232344
Message 10
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
Hi Gig,
On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 12:03 PM, Gig Giacona <wrgiacona@gmail.com> wrote:
> Do you have some information that we don't have?
I wish I did and that this information could prevent accidents, but I don't.
> I ask because you seem to be assuming that the FAA missed
> something.
Not "missed", no. It just seems like they are hedging, and the hedge
stands to reason. There were two options they could have taken:
a. "There was no evidence of oscillatory loading, which leads us to
rule out flutter."
b. "There was no evidence of oscillatory loading."
They chose (b). Had they applied their considerable combined expertise
to say (a), it could have cleared a lot of questions. Unfortunately,
they did not, from which I have to wonder that maybe, based on this
expertise, lack of evidence of oscillatory loading is not, after all,
enough to rule out flutter.
In my mind, failure due to flutter with yield in only one direction is
at least plausible.
> Unless you have some evidence that this is the case your position as
> stated above is pure conjecture.
Yes, it *is* conjecture. Again, I have no information you don't -- and
certainly no answers.
Over on the ZBAG group, there is currently a push to do some more
testing and analysis that could help everyone rule flutter in or out.
I'm just saying that this effort is good work that remains -- and
needs -- to be done.
Hope this clarifies. Regards,
Ihab
--
Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
Message 11
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
ihab.awad(at)gmail.com wrote:
> There were two options they could have taken:
>
> a. "There was no evidence of oscillatory loading, which leads us to
> rule out flutter."
>
> b. "There was no evidence of oscillatory loading."
I think I've found the problem. You don't speak Governmenteese.
Please find me a single FAA/NTSB report with the phrase "...which leads us to rule
out..."
The problem is you can't prove a negative.
--------
W.R. "Gig" Giacona
601XL Under Construction
See my progress at www.peoamerica.net/N601WR
Read this topic online here:
http://forums.matronics.com/viewtopic.php?p=232350#232350
Message 12
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| Subject: | Re: Absence of Evidence |
On Fri, Feb 27, 2009 at 1:16 PM, Gig Giacona <wrgiacona@gmail.com> wrote:
> I think I've found the problem. You don't speak Governmenteese.
> The problem is you can't prove a negative.
That may indeed be a fair analysis.
Ihab
--
Ihab A.B. Awad, Palo Alto, CA
Message 13
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| Subject: | Re: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace |
Craig, thanks for helping. My e.mail skills are still forming, Bill
In a message dated 2/26/2009 5:26:57 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
craig@craigandjean.com writes:
For those who don=99t have Microsoft Office 2007 (or the =9Cdoc
x=9D viewer) I=99ve
converted the doc to Acrobat/PDF. Hopefully you will find it attached.
-- Craig
From: owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com
[mailto:owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com] On Behalf Of japhillipsga@a
ol.com
Sent: Thursday, February 26, 2009 2:10 PM
Subject: Zenith-List: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace
Dear 601 Builders & Flyers, here is my next effort at reducing the risk of
aileron flutter. Sure would enjoy reading your opinions, Best regards, Bill
of
Georgia
____________________________________
Looking for work? _Get job alerts, employment information, career advice
and job-seeking tools at AOL Find a Job_
(http://jobs.aol.com/?ncid=emlcntuscare00000001) .
**************Get a jump start on your taxes. Find a tax professional in you
r
neighborhood today.
(http://yellowpages.aol.com/search?query=Tax+Return+Preparation+%26+Filing
&ncid=emlcntusyelp00000004)
Message 14
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| Subject: | 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace |
No problem. You have done all the hard work and done a great job of
documenting and sharing it.
-- Craig
Do not archive
From: owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com
[mailto:owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com] On Behalf Of
JAPhillipsGA@aol.com
Sent: Friday, February 27, 2009 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Zenith-List: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace
Craig, thanks for helping. My e.mail skills are still forming, Bill
In a message dated 2/26/2009 5:26:57 P.M. Eastern Standard Time,
craig@craigandjean.com writes:
For those who don=99t have Microsoft Office 2007 (or the
=9Cdocx=9D viewer) I=99ve converted the doc to
Acrobat/PDF. Hopefully you will find it attached.
-- Craig
From: owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com
[mailto:owner-zenith-list-server@matronics.com] On Behalf Of
japhillipsga@aol.com
Sent: Thursday, February 26, 2009 2:10 PM
Subject: Zenith-List: 601XL Aileron Bellcrank Brace
Dear 601 Builders & Flyers, here is my next effort at reducing the risk
of aileron flutter. Sure would enjoy reading your opinions, Best
regards, Bill of Georgia
_____
Looking for work? Get job alerts,
<http://jobs.aol.com/?ncid=emlcntuscare00000001> employment
information, career advice and job-seeking tools at AOL Find a Job.
_____
Get a jump start on your taxes. Find
<http://yellowpages.aol.com/search?query=Tax+Return+Preparation+%26+Fil
ing&ncid=emlcntusyelp00000004> a tax professional in your
neighborhood today.
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